Demographic change as a demand killer

The aging society in Switzerland is not only a concern for analysts of future scenarios for the AHV (old age and survivors' insurance), but also for players in the real estate market today. According to Swissinfo.ch, the local real estate market in several cantons is showing the first signs of saturation in the family real estate segment (large apartments and single-family homes).

Ageing Switzerland

Demographic change is in full swing in many regions of the world and in Europe in particular. Switzerland is no exception. While the birth rate has reached a record low of 1.29 children per woman in 2024, life expectancy is rising continuously and, according to the Federal Statistical Office, will be just under 86 years for women (as of 2024). As a result, the number of people in employment is steadily decreasing, while there are more retirees and senior citizens. The number of families is also falling accordingly, especially those with more than one child.

Effects on the property sector

According to Swissinfo.ch, the cantons of Ticino, Bern, Neuchâtel, Jura, Appenzell Ausserrhoden, Nidwalden, Obwalden, Graubünden, Glarus and Schaffhausen are already showing signs of stagnating demand in sales, which can be seen, for example, in the increased duration of advertisements. Large family flats and detached houses are particularly affected, as older people are no longer asking for these sizes, or only to a lesser extent.
The number of transactions is also falling, as people over 65 are making fewer changes to their current living situation.

Conclusion: More affordable housing for families soon?

The cantons listed include many that have a high proportion of rural and in some cases structurally weak areas. These cantons are the first to feel the effects of demographic change. However, sooner or later the effects will affect the whole of Switzerland. In terms of demand, the developments are likely to mean the following: Flats up to 4.5 rooms and smaller are likely to be in greater demand, while larger flats and single-family homes will be available in higher numbers, which will be reflected in lower prices.

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Philemon
Gyger
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Real estate specialist with passion

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